Client: Changing Markets Foundation
Project: Truth, Lies and Culture Wars: Social listening analysis of meat and dairy persuasion narratives
Date: 2023
Ripple Research partnered with Changing Markets Foundation to identify and analyze misinformation surrounding the 2022-23 Dutch Farmers' Protests against the national nitrogen policy. Our study reveals the influence of misleading far-right narratives on these protests, shedding light on how public opinion and policy decisions are shaped in the environmental and agricultural sectors.
Understanding the Context Behind the Dutch Farmers' Protests
The Dutch Farmers’ protests comprise actions by Dutch livestock farmers against emission reduction policies they argue will negatively impact their livelihoods and the agricultural sector.
The protests were triggered in 2019 by potential policy actions in response to a nitrogen emissions crisis in the Netherlands. The potential actions suggested “halving” the livestock in the country to lessen agricultural pollution. This sparked the first in a series of multiple protests by livestock farmers, marked by frequent, high-visibility demonstrations often involving the use of tractors to block roads and occupy public spaces.
Most recently, in 2022, the protests saw a period of heightened activity. This was driven by the Netherlands government's decision to allocate €24.3 billion for agricultural reforms, which included a proposal to reduce nitrogen emissions by 50% by the end of the decade. The plan, potentially requiring a 30% reduction in livestock, heightened farmers' fears about the sustainability of their operations.
Farmers have criticized the proposed solutions, such as buy-outs and modernization of farming techniques, as either too vague or redundant, pointing out that many have already made significant updates to their practices. The additional demands to cut back on fertilizer use and reduce livestock numbers have added to the discontent, with farmers arguing that these measures are not only impractical but also potentially destructive to their profession.
Against this backdrop, we aim to investigate the misinformation surrounding this ongoing event. The period of our study coincides with this surge in protest activities following the announcement of the 2022 nitrogen policy in the Netherlands. During this time, key events unfolded, including the government's offer to buy out 3,000 peak polluting farms and industrial polluters, numerous protests, the rise of the BBB farmers' party in the provincial elections, and the dissolution of the ruling government in the Netherlands.
Our approach
The purpose of this study
A large part of our research into misinformation related to the meat and dairy sectors focuses on The Great Reset and Agenda 2030 conspiracy theories. The larger study captures a subset of posts that reveals a link between the Dutch farmers’ protests and the Great Reset misinformation theme.
The objective of this study is to explore these links further to build a clear picture of the online misinformation landscape related to the 2022 Nitrogen Policy, which is driving the protests. In this regard, four key research questions have been formulated to guide our investigation:
What prevalent themes of misinformation are associated with the Dutch farmers’ protests on social and digital media?
Are there any significant surges in online misinformation related to this issue?
Who are the key actors responsible for disseminating this misinformation?
Are there any specific individuals or groups, such as politicians, that were targeted by this misinformation?
Our Methodology
Building a custom dataset
Our larger study (focusing on misinformation narratives related to the meat and dairy sectors) is comprehensive and well-suited for its intended purpose. While it captures some conversations related to the Dutch farmers’ protests, it does not focus specifically on this topic. For a more in-depth understanding of this issue, and to capture the landscape of misinformation around the Dutch farmers’ protests, we constructed an entirely new dedicated dataset.
As a starting point, we conducted a thorough literature review to gain a comprehensive understanding of the protests, their scope, duration, key actors, and progression. This review not only informed our approach but also helped to establish a foundational knowledge base from which to develop a more targeted data collection strategy.
Crafting a new search lexicon
The next step involved creating a new search lexicon, including both English and Dutch language keywords. Utilizing our proprietary Human+AI approach, we crafted a lexicon designed to filter through the noise and surface the misinformation specifically linked to the Dutch protests.
The resultant dataset captures the nuances of misinformation surrounding the Dutch farmers’ protests. It is the largest dataset on online misinformation surrounding the Dutch farmers’ protests and the policies driving them. It represents a curated collection of online posts to enable a richer understanding of the dynamics of misinformation surrounding this topic.
Our analytical methods
To examine our dataset and address our research questions, we have employed several analytical methods
Volume trend analysis: This method involves monitoring the frequency of discussions over time, which we used to detect significant peaks and trends in misinformation discourse.
Narrative analysis: This approach examines the content and structure of the conversations - used to understand the misinformation themes and narratives being disseminated.
Misinfluencer analysis: Our Misinfluencer analysis identifies central figures whose content garners substantial engagement. This allows us to determine who is most responsible for propagating false narratives.
What we discovered
Our custom-built dataset for this study contains 156K misinformation posts, made by 85K accounts, garnering 491K in engagement over a 12-month timeframe
This dataset includes posts in English and Dutch, and contains 156,406 posts identified as misinformation, spanning one year - from 1 Nov 2022 to 31 Oct 2023.
Engagement metrics show significant interaction, with these misinformation posts garnering 490,988 likes, shares, and comments across various platforms.
Our analysis reveals that the posts within the dataset originate from 85,107 unique accounts, offering a detailed look at the entities behind the misinformation spread.
Our time-series analysis shows multiple peaks in misinformation volume during our study period.
We have identified 9 major peaks in volume within our dataset.
From our analysis, we can see a notable decrease in misinformation following the stepping down from office of Netherlands PM Mark Rutte (on Jul 8th, 2023) and deputy PM Sigrid Kaag (Jul 12th, 2023).
Almost all misinformation peaks observed in our data coalesce around 3 main themes.
In this case study, we do not observe a significant evolution of misinformation narratives over time. Instead, the broad themes of misinformation remain remarkably consistent. These major themes are:
The Great Reset conspiracy
The Agenda 2030 conspiracy
The conspiracy regarding the land-grabbing of private property.
In addition to these main themes, our dataset also shows that "Climate Tyranny" (to undermine climate action) is a less dominant but still significant theme.
The following table provides a detailed description of these themes and the various elements they encompass.
Our detailed narrative analysis demonstrates that these three major misinformation themes link almost all 9 misinformation peaks in our dataset.
Peak 1: “The World Economic Forum (WEF) elite are enforcing land-grab policies to steal private property from farmers as part of Agenda 2030”
The Dutch government's announcement of buyouts for "peak polluter" farms and industrial polluters to reduce nitrogen emissions sparked a misinformation narrative claiming that these actions amounted to land theft driven by global elites (such as Bill Gates and the World Economic Forum). Allegations were rife that the nitrogen and climate crises were fabricated to push “Agenda 2030".
Key disseminators of these claims included Eva Vlaardingerbroek, previously affiliated with the far-right FvD political party; James Melville, also active in our larger study; and Peter Sweden, a conspiracy theorist and far-right commentator.
Peak 2: “The World Economic Forum (WEF) controlled Dutch State is trying to illegally steal land from farmers”
This misinformation peak continued the outcry against the Dutch government's policy to buy out high-emission farms, framing it as illegal land seizure without lawful recourse.
The narrative was propelled by Robert W. Malone, an mRNA vaccine skeptic with a history of spreading COVID-19 vaccine misinformation. He retweeted a video from Eva Vlaardingerbroek, reinforcing the narrative of "WEF-backed" governmental overreach.
Peak 3: “The World Economic Forum (WEF) controlled Dutch Government is dangerous and farmers must win against them”
Multiple accounts pushed a narrative that framed the Dutch government as puppets under the shadowy influence of the WEF, with harmful intentions toward farmers. These allegations were intertwined with climate denial, references to the WEF and New World Order conspiracies, and supposed machinations of a "Globalist deep state" aimed at sabotaging the Netherlands.
The misinformation surge coincided with a significant protest at The Hague and the BBB farmers' party's election gains, lending real-world events to the virtual narrative.
Peak 4: “The Great Reset and Agenda 2030 are behind anti-farmer policies”
Misinformation linking agro-climate policies to the "Great Reset" conspiracy was spread during an EU (European Union) Parliament session. MEP Rob Roos gave a speech echoing these narratives, and a video of his speech was shared to validate the conspiratorial claims.
Peter Sweden, known for his previous engagement in similar misinformation campaigns, and an entity called "Wide Awake Media," a pseudonymous platform known for spreading false narratives, were at the forefront.
Peak 5: “Climate tyranny is behind anti-farmer policies”
The key misinformation narratives from this peak targeted both Dutch and Irish policies on environmental reform, dubbing them as "Climate tyranny." The narratives implied that the Dutch government's buyout of high-emission farms and Ireland's purported plans to cull cattle numbers were “insane” actions to mitigate climate change.
Peter Sweden, a recurrent figure, was again instrumental in spreading these messages, conflating the policies as evidence of government overreach in environmental matters.
Peak 6: “The WEF controls governments and implements Agenda 2030 through agro-climate policy”
Here, misinformation accused the Dutch farm buyout policy of being an act of theft, further linking it to the WEF and its chairman Klaus Schwab. Narratives suggested a WEF influence over not just the Dutch, but also the American government via John Kerry (The US Climate Envoy).
Prominent in circulating these claims were James Melville, who has been active in previous misinformation peaks, and Jim Ferguson, a UK politician with strong anti-government control views.
Peak 7:” The tyrannical Great Reset Netherlands government has fallen”
Misinformation celebrated the resignation of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as a victory against "tyrannical" climate goals tied to the "Great Reset." This false narrative implied that the resignation was a direct consequence of governmental overreach, particularly the aforementioned farm buyout policy.
Peter Sweden, mentioned previously, contributed to the spread of this misleading narrative.
Peak 8: “All agro-climate policies are a part of the WEF Great Reset which will force us to eat bugs”
The release of the documentary "No Farmers No Food" became a focal point for misinformation. The documentary, according to its promotional material, is about “stories of farmers forced out of business and exposes the hidden agenda behind "Green Policies" that are pushing people to eat bugs, a global food crisis ignored by the world's media”. The preview of the documentary, shared on social media featuring images of Mark Rutte, Dutch farmers, and WEF's Klaus Schwab, implied nefarious agendas.
The film, directed by Roman Balakov of The Epoch Times, a publication known for far-right perspectives, was heavily promoted by "Wide Awake Media," further contributing to the spread of misinformation.
Peak 9: “Agro-climate policies are a part of an agenda to control the people”
Misinformation within this peak alleged a "global war on farming" - seen as part of an overarching plot to ‘manipulate food supply for population control’. A video of a Dutch farmer asserting the government's intention to seize farmland under the guise of environmental protection was used to back these claims.
Eva Vlaardingerbroek, who has been integral to prior misinformation spikes, was key in disseminating these allegations, framing the government's environmental concerns as a mere pretext for land expropriation.
Findings from our timeline, narrative, misinfluencer, and geo-linguistic analyses substantiates the existence of a transnational far-right movement
The far-right has used protests in the Netherlands and in Canada, specifically the Dutch Farmers’ Movement and the Canadian Freedom Convoy, to capitalize on anti-government sentiments developed locally to promote the idea that there is a transnational far-right.
The attempt to build a transnational far-right movement is evident in our misinformation dataset. From the beginning of the Dutch farmers’ protests, digital conversations have been heavily influenced by inter-country far-right factions and ideology. Our analysis and findings substantiate this assertion. Our analysis of key data points showcases this, provided below.
As seen previously, our narrative analysis reveals that the misinformation landscape within this study is dominated by key conspiracy themes: The Great Reset, Agenda 2030, and allegations of illegal land grabs. Each peak in our timeline analysis, regardless of the topic, is intertwined with these core conspiracy themes linked to far-right ideology. The following exhibits showcase this.
Exhibit 1: The “No Farmers No Food” documentary closely associated with the far-right ecosystem causes a major spike.
One of the peaks in our dataset (Peak 8), is solely driven by conversations surrounding the release of the documentary "No Farmers No Food”. The documentary is about “stories of farmers forced out of business and exposes the hidden agenda behind "Green Policies" that are pushing people to eat bugs, a global food crisis ignored by the world's media”.
The preview of the documentary, shared on social media features images of Mark Rutte, Dutch farmers, and WEF's Klaus Schwab, implying nefarious agendas.
Roman Balakov of The Epoch Times, a far-right media entity directed this documentary. Notably, The Epoch Times has been identified as a major pro-Trump supporter in the U.S. A 2019 NBC News report calls it the second-largest source of pro-Trump Facebook ad spending.
Exhibit 2: Most of our misinformation posts (75%) are in English, and posts from foreign countries contribute to the conversation nearly as much as the Netherlands.
Further insights emerge from the geographic and linguistic spread of the misinformation:
Although the protests are centered in the Netherlands, a disproportionate amount of the misinformation—116,711 conversations out of a total of 156,406, or about 75% is in English, with only 25% in Dutch.
Geographically, the distribution of conversations shows a broad reach—37,975 posts originate in the Netherlands, but a nearly matching figure of 34,764 posts come from countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. It is important to mention that not all conversations have location tags, and these numbers only reflect the ones that do.
While the Dutch farmers are protesting their domestic and internal policy issues, there is significant foreign and external interest in coopting these events to push far-right ideologies in other countries.
Exhibit 3: The misinfluencers amassing significant engagement are not based in the Netherlands, and the primary misinfluencer from the Netherlands communicates predominantly in English.
MisInfluencers amassing significant engagement are not based in the Netherlands.
Individuals like James Melville, Robert W Malone, Peter Sweden, and Jim Fergusson, who are instrumental in driving misinformation peaks are from the US, Scotland, Scandinavia, and the UK.The primary misinfluencer from the Netherlands spreads misinformation predominantly in English.
Eva Vlaardingerbroek, the only identifiable key misinfluencer from the Netherlands, is a recognized right-wing commentator and ex-member of the far-right political party, Forum for Democracy (FVD). Vlaardingerbroek has promoted her views on American far-right news platforms, notably on the show Tucker Carlson Tonight, on the Fox News Channel.
Most of the Misinfluencers identified in our analysis are notable far-right figures, including journalists, politicians, and media outlets – with followings that range from hundreds of thousands to over a million.
Our Misinfluencer analysis enabled us to isolate the most “influential spokespeople” within our misinformation dataset - these are the social media accounts that created misinformation posts and garnered the maximum engagement. Our top 15 Misinfluencers can be split into a few key categories:
1. Journalists and political commentators: As can be seen in the exhibit, five accounts fall into this category - individuals who are self-proclaimed journalists and commentators. They are
a) Peter Immanuelsen - Otherwise known as Peter Sweden, a Swedish journalist, conspiracy theorist. and far-right commentator.
b) Eva Vlaardingerbroek - A Dutch far-right commentator, previously affiliated with the far-right FvD political party in the Netherlands.
c) James Melville - A Scottish media personality, who was also found to be active in our larger study
d) Neil Oliver - A Scottish TV presenter who currently works for right-wing media outlet GB News.
e) Michael Yon - An American citizen journalist, referred to as "the reporter of choice for many conservatives.
2. Politicians: These include politicians from across the world. As can be seen in the exhibit, they are
a) Jim Ferguson - A former Parliamentary candidate with The Brexit Party, was formerly a part of the Conservative Party, and describes himself as someone who is “opposed to lockdowns and other methods or control including censorship”.
b) Geert Wilders - A member of the House of Representatives of the Netherlands, and leader of Party for Freedom - a nationalist, right-wing populist political party in the Netherlands.
c)Herman Tertsch (MEP) - A Spanish journalist and politician, integrated within the European Conservatives and Reformists, and a signatory of the Madrid Charter, an alliance of right-wing and far-right individuals.
3. Miscellaneous: Other Misinfluencers are miscellaneous people and social media pages. Our exhibit showcases the two categories under this umbrella
a) Social media pages - These are popular social media pages, not identifiably run by a single individual, with a large number of followers. This includes pages like Wide Awake Media, CanadaInDistress, Anti-WEF, AND Wall Street Silver.
b) Individual influencers – These are identifiable individuals who play a role in spreading misinformation and have substantial online followings. In this category are public personalities like Rob Schneider (an American comedian with anti-vaccine views), and other influencers such as Vince Clements and Pelham, who, while not widely known, still have a strong presence and influence online.
Sensemaking
The protests began in the Netherlands in 2019 and have continued since then, with farmers protesting government policies that they claim threaten their livelihoods. The policies in question aim to reduce nitrogen emissions from livestock farming, which is a major industry in the Netherlands. The protests have become increasingly agitated, with some farmers using intimidation tactics and far-right groups latching onto the movement. The protests have led to the rise of a new political movement in the Netherlands, with a pro-farmer party winning big in the Dutch provincial elections in March 2023.
So how can we make sense of this volatile and dynamic situation?
Infodemiology is an emergent field in misinformation research that asserts that ideas and beliefs can spread like viruses, with certain narratives (units of cultural information) being more successful than others in replicating and spreading. Narratives are stories that people use to make sense of the world around them, and they often contain implicit or explicit moral and cultural messages.
Infodemiology and narrative analysis can be used to explain the connection between the Dutch farmer protests and their seepage into far-right ideologies beyond the Netherlands, especially in Canada and the US.
This contagion can be attributed to various Misinfluencers including Donald Trump. This narrative has been further amplified by social media, which has allowed for the rapid spread of information and the formation of online communities around shared beliefs.
In the case of the Dutch farmer protests, the narrative of the hardworking, honest farmer being unfairly targeted by an out-of-touch government has resonated with some far-right groups, who see it as an example of the government overstepping its bounds and threatening individual freedoms. This narrative has been reinforced by the use of symbols and imagery, such as burning torches and tractors, which have become associated with the protests and the broader movement.
Our current study presents a data-driven map, charting the contours of this issue. It substantiates the presence of a cross-border far-right movement and the seepage of its ideologies into mainstream policy discussions. Moreover, it equips us to track and understand its expansion and evolution in real time.
Addendum: Since the release of this report, Geert Wilders' far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) has won the Dutch parliamentary elections. This victory underscores the tangible threat misinformation poses to the democratic process. It distorts public perception with voters making decisions based on false or misleading information. It contributes to societal divisions by spreading polarizing narratives and hindering constructive dialogue and erodes trust in government institutions.
Deploying proactive measures to counter misinformation is crucial for transparent governance and a well-informed electorate.